If Oshiomhole Survives

By Emmanuel Aziken

The outlook for Comrade as at press time was quite cloudy. Adams Oshiomhole, who had in the past bragged about effortlessly burying political godfathers, was grasping for survival in the face of trenchant opposition to him remaining as chairman of the country’s ruling party.

The determined adversaries rubbed it home last Thursday when they removed his portraits and other insignia of his leadership of the All Progressives Congress, APC from within and around the national secretariat of the party.

Embarrassingly also, in a demonstration of loss of favour, security men keeping siege to the secretariat fenced delegations from the chairman from having access to the secretariat even as they allowed his foes free entry and exit.

It looked like a long time ago when Comrade Oshiomhole outlandishly sought to trash a Supreme Court decision on Bayelsa with his declaration that no one would be sworn in as governor of the state despite the pronouncement of the apex court.

Just a few months earlier, the chairman had almost unilaterally suspended his subordinates, including his deputy, Senator Lawali Shuabu, and the national vice chairman, Northwest, Alhaji Inuwa Abdulkadir.

In a twist of fate, his adversaries are now bragging that Oshiomhole would be dead meat at the end of the National Executive Committee, NEC meeting scheduled for next Tuesday.

However, but not so easily.

A man who silenced so many godfathers and survived many intrigues should not be so quickly written off.

At least two of the leading APC states with proportionate NEC members, Lagos and Kano, are solidly behind him. Borno is also believed to be behind him, if not, then for his attempt to help the state ‘steal’ the position of National Secretary from Yobe.

Many commentators have been quick to blame Oshiomhole for supposedly forcing the crisis on himself through his actions in Edo State.

But not completely. Yes, comrade tried to overreach himself when he allowed the governor’s responsibilities to be carved in 2017 after he had left office.

At that time, the Edo APC stakeholders resolved that Oshiomhole would be the political leader while Governor Godwin Obaseki would face governance.

That decision meant that the ship of Edo State had two captains.

Inevitably, one had to go if the ship had to make progress.

Political dealers saw the gaffe and successfully came between Comrade and the governor to the discomfort of both men.

While Oshiomhole’s associates wanted Captain Obaseki to go, those around the governor fought back for Capitan Oshiomhole to go.

Indeed, when Comrade saw his error, he apparently tried to pull back as he saw the handwriting on the wall. 

Indeed, for a man with much restless energy, even if he is politically caged, he would certainly not be miserable as he finds joy in the charm and care of his dearly beloved and beautiful wife.

After the humiliating incident at the Edo Varsity last November, discerning observers would have noticed that Comrade was unusually reticent even when the forces of the Edo State government launched at him. Shockingly, he even apologized to Obaseki.

But in politics, just as he taught his boys in his dealings with Chief Gabriel Igbinedion, Chief Tony Anenih, Chief Samuel Ogbemudia, and many more, you don’t keep hostages. Go for the kill.

So, the Obaseki crowd sensing a lion in panic moved for the kill.

Remarkably, his many enemies at the national level and those with 2023 aspirations easily tapped into the dissonance to unsettle him.

It is remarkable that Lagos State, on account of the presidential aspiration of Asiwaju Bola Tinubu has been solidly behind Oshiomhole. What an irony.

As governor of Edo State, Oshiomhole was remarkably independent of the Asiwaju crowd despite being in the same party.

He was handled with care and was rarely brought into the schemes of the group.

When the Asiwaju camp sought to replace John Odigie-Oyegun, Oshiomhole happened to have been a convenient choice between President Muhammadu Buhari and Tinubu.

In fact, he was the president’s choice.

After commissioning the Central Hospital in Benin in November 2016 and recalling the brutal efficiency with which Oshiomhole foisted Obaseki as his successor, the presidency beckoned on him, perhaps with 2019 in view.

Oshiomhole delivered. But what has been surprising for some is the unbending loyalty with which he has related with Asiwaju.

Odigie-Oyegun was not as steadfast to Tinubu as Oshiomhole has been. When the former chairman saw the body language of the presidency, especially in the Ondo State primaries in 2016, he was quick to shift away from Tinubu to incline towards the presidency.

Tinubu never forgave him and saw to his exit.

Whether Oshiomhole has been so tested as Odigie-Oyegun was, remains a matter of contention. But what is known is that just as Odigie-Oyegun was humiliated by collaborators from home, Oshiomhole has been served with the same medicine as he was used to serve Odigie-Oyegun.

Given the forces arranged against him and the apparent expiration of his presidential brief for 2019, it would be a miracle if he survives.

If he does not, he would have gone down as a stubborn fighter who needed a constellation of powerful forces around the country to bring him down.

Indeed, for a man with much restless energy, even if he is politically caged, he would certainly not be miserable as he finds joy in the charm and care of his dearly beloved and beautiful wife.

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