Edo PDP: How Obaseki Can Survive Beyond 2023

It will be more than adequate for me, in my own opinion, if this article is able to stimulate the recall to mind our recent political history in Edo State – that is how Governor Godwin Obaseki left APC to join PDP, stroke our collective memory to liveliness and remind us of the euphoria of the event of our victory without necessarily wishing for the reverse of the same history.

Even the displaced, the dominated and the dispossessed do not all the time implicate history, they find time to surge ahead.

This article is a quest for understanding, for reunion of minds, a call to actually understand what is before us – an opening of our collective memory during the 2020 gubernatorial election for reflections and interrogation to specifically determine what happened after the victory.

Obaseki And The Division Of Old And New In Edo PDP

I am joining other like minds to demolish the implicit doctrine of separations in PDP by challenging the unwritten scriptures of ‘mine versus theirs,’ ‘old versus new’…but we can only do this through sobriety, that is when we allow reflections take over. We must replace complacency with re-dedication in the Party as we prepare our minds towards the 2023 and 2024 elections because failure to do so have far-reaching implications.

There is an open war and strategic provoked accusations between Governor Obaseki and members of the old PDP; it is in the open so I am not revealing any privileged information or secret. However, we must look at the grim irony of the whole event holistically, the indignity, the pernicious fantasies, the unseen pitfalls, the thematic actualities, the prospect of failure…beyond the mere wish of an urgent meeting of intervention to save PDP in Edo State from political infamy.

If Governor Godwin Obaseki continues in this political process and trajectory, this pessimistic venture, this manifesto of political impotence, this project of ambiguous indictments, this unnecessary excos harmonization, this impassioned political disassociation, this rhetoric of power and uncompromising immobility, (not minding my hyperbolic accent) there is sure going to be serious implicative political upheavals and destabilization come 2023 and beyond in PDP.

Now, the old PDP are in the majority in the Party. With the provocative realities on ground as of today, it will be difficult for the new PDP to elect office holders apart from local government officials that is directly under the watch of the government. And according to rumours, unfounded or genuine, the Governor will go to any length to make sure the old PDP, loyal to Chief Dan Orbih that is spread all over the 18 LGAs in huge numbers, will not get elective positions as appointments so far are skewed towards members of the new PDP and members of the old PDP that had joined the Governor basically for pernicious gains, as it seems, even if it means undermining the Party’s Constitution.

It was also said as part of the rumour that if the Direct Primaries does not scale through as Buhari is shaky on the matter, for every elective position the old PDP use their excos to present aspirants, the new PDP will do the same with their harmonized excos, the worst case scenario will be for the old PDP to go to court.

Whether Direct Or Indirect, Obaseki Does Not Hold The Key In Edo PDP

The truth is, in PDP either Direct or Indirect Primaries, the Governor will not be so much in a position to present candidates for elections that will be widely accepted. First, he came to PDP with few members and since the protracted face-off between the Governor and members of the old PDP, some of his followers have left back to APC.

Secondly, the Governor, as a matter of fact, is no longer enjoying the goodwill he used to enjoy prior to the 2020 gubernatorial election –  goodwill that was cast on the propaganda of ‘no to Godfatherism.’ Any truthful political analyst in Edo State will tell you this. From Edo North through Edo Central to Edo South, the goodwill has evaporated through multiple vents. So for the Governor to assign any aspirant for elective position would be almost a political death throe for the individual. This is a statement of fact beyond doubt.

And if these rumours have spines in them, the implication would be that APC will have good shots at those PDP disputed positions. However, the objective question is, will the Governor afford to allow APC win elections in Edo State just to spite the old PDP? I don’t see that happening because it won’t only be unfavourable, the Governor will be clearing his path away from politics before his tenure will be over in 2024.

APC cannot forget easily the denial of their members from representing their constituents in the Edo State House of Assembly as their tenure in absentia is going to be coming to an end next year, nor will the party forget the defeat they received and its consequences in the 2020 gubernatorial election. Some had their buildings demolished and others had their lands revoked.

So if through the infighting in PDP the party goes into self implosion in Edo State, and APC wins at all levels like PDP did in Zamfara and Rivers, Governor Godwin Obaseki will not last hours as the Governor of Edo State – he will be impeached. They will come for more than a pound of his political blood and flesh like vampires, hyenas, wizards and witches. They will not only end there, they will also make sure all his followers are disposed off their political careers because it will be more than just defeat, it will be a vengeful recompense for them. It will be like the total annihilation and destruction of their avowed enemies.

 The likes of Comrade Oshiomhole will never forget or forgive nor will Pastor Izi-Iyamu. Vincent Uwadiae, Ovia North-East II; Ugiagbe Dumez, Ovia North-East I; Washington Osifo, Uhunmwode; Victor Edoror, Esan Central; Kingsley Ugabi, Etsako East and Michael Ohio-Ezomo, Owan West.

Others were Sunday Aghedo, Ovia South-West; Chris Okaeben, Oredo West; Crosby Eribo, Egor; Aliyu Oshiomhole, Etsako West II; Oshomah Ahmed, Etsako Central, and Ganiyu Audu, Etsako West I will never forget nor forgive. They will be ruthless if they are able to find their ways back. This might look like a speculative fiction, but that’s the likely scenario if the Governor allows the problem in PDP to linger on.

How Obaseki Can Guide PDP In Edo Beyond 2023

So, the best bet going forward is still PDP for the  Governor. He will need to drop his ego, his confrontational tactics, winner-takes all attitude and call for genuine dialogue bereft of deceit. The truth never hurts; let no one advice him to assist APC to win any election in Edo State, it will be a political genocide especially now he is politically fragile. He must find a common ground with critical stakeholders in the party, nothing much brute force or politics of alienation can do in this situation.

The sentient human seeks for understanding as it is seen in all social documents across cultures, civilization and even political upheavals. The most propulsive element in political strives is sacrifices through understanding.

The Governor must seek it with members of his Party now for peace to reign. Genuine peace should be the only catering agenda he should be seen to be pursuing and I know some leaders like Prince Francis Omo-Osunde Iyasere are doing that on behalf of the Party with genuine intention. The likes of Hon. Paschal Ogbome can come in too, he is a very respected individual and detribalized.

 Politics, understanding, negotiations, dialogue, sacrifices and compromises are all inextricably linked. The scaffolding that can only support the peaceful coexistence in PDP today is dialogue, not the superficial monologue where only one side is talking like the winner talks all.

So I ask that the Governor should summon a fair dialogue with the Party leaders with the hope of enjoining a re-dedication and re-designing of the future of the Party basically for future elections, for his own future and for the future of the coming generations. This is a task that must be done.

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