Opinion
Tinubu’s Renewed Hope 2023 Manifesto: It’s Hogwash
By Dele Sobowale
“If you can’t stand the heat, get out of the kitchen.”
Politicians who take the trouble to put their ideas in writing always run the risk that many people might not be impressed and might criticise them harshly. They must have their reasons for doing it. They should develop the fortitude to accept even the worst condemnation by others. That is why, the best admonition has always been: “if you can’t stand the heat, stay out of the kitchen”.
That said; this analysis of the document published by the Tinubu/Shettima team representing the All Progressives Congress, APC, will be conducted as dispassionately as humanly possible. Let me admit that absolute objectivity is never possible at times like these – which try men’s souls. The review will necessarily be long enough to cover the subject matter; but, short enough to save readers’ time.
This is the second time in nearly twenty years in Nigerian politics, that a Presidential candidate and a major party would take the risk of publishing and releasing to the public a Manifesto. Incidentally, the All Progressives Congress, APC, did the same thing in 2015.
As the party is nearing its eighth year in office, we have a track record to guide us in deciding whether or not to accept the new Manifesto of its flag bearer at face value. In fact, this is absolutely important because Asiwaju Bola Tinubu was a co-founder of the APC and as the party’s National Leader, was partly responsible for foisting the first Manifesto on Nigerians.
Therefore, the best place to start this analysis is to re-visit the old Manifest; remind Nigerians of the promises made in 2013 and judge APC against the situation in which we now find ourselves.
PROMISES MADE BY APC IN 2014-5
“[Politicians] promises, like [biscuits] are made to be broken”.
Jonathan Swift, 1667-1745.
The political party and the candidates presented for office are inextricably linked. So, the APC in 2015 presented Major General Muhammadu Buhari and Professor Yemi Osinbajo with a Manifesto packed full of promises. Only four of them will be abbreviated here. Judge for yourselves’; if as they now claim, all the promises have been fulfilled.
· urgently address capacity building of law enforcement agents…Establish a well-trained, adequately funded, equipped and goals-driven Serious Crimes Squad to combat terrorism, kidnapping, armed robbery, militancy, ethno-religious…clashes nationwide.
· To create at least one million new jobs every year..Create additional middle class of at least 1 million new homeowners in our first year in government and 1 million annually thereafter…
· Offer free and qualitative primary and secondary education to all..
· Increase the quality of all Federal Government owned hospitals to world class standard within five years. Invest in cutting edge technology such as tele-medicine in all major health centres in the country..
Remember: there were several more promises in the APC 2013 Manifesto.
SITUATION NOW
Based on the selected four promises from the 2013 CHANGE Manifesto, the situation right now is as follows.
· there is no Serious Crimes Squad; instead, “NorthEast leads, as terrorists, others, kill 53,418 under Buhari. (Report, October 23, 2022.
· No free and qualitative primary and secondary education for all.
· More people formerly middle class have descended into poverty.
· No world class hospital owned by FG and no tele-medicine anywhere in Nigeria.
NEW MANIFESTO SUMMARISED: PROMISE OF CONTINUITY
The new Manifesto contains a 16-point agenda including: National Security, Economy, Agriculture, Power, Oil and Gas, Transportation, Education, Healthcare, The Digital Economy, Sport Entertainment And Culture, Youth Employment And Entrepreneurship, Women Empowerment, Social Programs, Judicial Reform, Federalism/Decentralisation Of Power and Foreign Policy.
Certainly, every government must deal with all these issues. But, there is a need for prioritising the focus of attention. I will come to that very shortly.
THREE REVEALING PROJECTIONS
Just as in 2013, the credibility or otherwise of this document can be determined by taking a close look at three projections made with actual quantitative targets set out in what is essentially a trope of words without definite quantitative promises made. The three exceptions are:
· Gross Domestic Product, GDP – page 13
· Cumulative Additional Housing Units —page 25
· Youth Unemployment – page 58
They are reproduced below in order for serious readers, who might not have the time to read the Manifesto can quickly understand what the objections are to these bogus promises.
One thing is glaring. They exhibit the lack of professionalism in the preparation of what should be the most important statement candidates and the political party can make to the people – if they intend to be taken seriously.
First, the three projections start off without taking notice of the current situation in the country – as if there are no records of the years 2015-2022 to serve as guide for future projections. Second, implied in the data presented is the assumption that the new government, which will not assume office until June 2023 will deliver GDP growth, new housing units and create jobs at the same rate next year as in every full year thereafter. Third, in each instance annual rate of increases will remain the same throughout irrespective of national or global conditions. Fourth, Nigerians are not told how much will be required to achieve these questionable objectives; and where the funds will come from. Altogether, it is clear that no professional economist or demographer was consulted by the essayists who wrote this great fiction; which is not a development document. The following questions and observations will reveal some of the deficiencies in each of them.
· With 2022 almost finished, and GDP growth of, at best, three and a half per cent expected, who believes the 10% growth promised for 2022? The budget for 2023 is already with the National Assembly, NASS. The Buhari government, in power until May 29, 2023, promised 4 per cent for the year. Is it possible for a new government to deliver 10% for the full year? At what rate would the economy grow in seven months to achieve 10 per cent for total year 2023? Show me any financial expert who says it is possible; and I will show you a liar.
· The projections on Housing Units are simply laughable. Four additional units will be added in the seven months of 2023; the same 4 units will be added every full year after that. That is funny enough. The questions are: how many units are there now? And, does 4 mean only four single houses, buildings or 400, 4000, 40000, 4 million? Where will they be built? Have the parcels of land been granted by the state Governors? Designs approved? Funding secured? For how many people and categories? Tinubu should call the fellows who wrote that drivel, sack them and ask for his money to be refunded.
· Job creation is always a favourite promise of politicians in every election – because there are always millions unemployed. So, any promise will do. Not surprising, the drafters of the document started by promising to cut youth unemployment in half within four years. As can be seen from the figures provided, they started by understating the 2022 actual. It is not 21.5m; it is more like 36m. But, even if one accepts 21.5m as base figure, 11.9m will not reduce youth unemployment by 50% in four years because as the population grows by 3 per cent every year, 12 per cent more young people would have been added to the number. Any demographer or population expert can confirm that. At, any rate, reducing youth unemployment by 12.5 per cent in 2023, with a global recession looming, and in just seven months is another story best for children’s bedtime. Where is the money to make it happen?
There is really no need to comment on everything else; since the three selected are representative of the other promises made in the document. However, one item must be visited because it controls the heart beat of Nigeria – without it, we can’t breathe.
OIL AND GAS
Goal: Increase crude oil production to 2.6mmbpd by 2027 and 4mmbpd by 2023. (Page 35 of Manifesto).
First, the President we will elect next year, if elections hold, will serve until 2027. For now, any comment about 2030 is irrelevant. Second, Nigeria has never produced 2.3mbpd – even when rig count was 28; so 2.6mmbpd is out of the question. The reason is known to those not engaging in self-deception.
At the moment, rig count is now 11; we now produce less than 1.2mbpd and lose 40 per cent to thieves; the International Oil Companies are decamping and going home; the pressure is on globally to reduce oil exploration, production and export; and there is OPEC to deal with.
A future based on pumping and exporting more oil is no future for Nigeria.
DELIBERATE OMISSIONS: POSSIBLE REASONS
Interestingly enough, the Manifesto has deliberately avoided several issues which have become intractable problems; and without which rapid economic, social and political development will continue to elude us. Nigeria is not Lagos State. Turning Lagos state around is like driving a Formula 1 car; turning Nigeria around is like driving a fully loaded 40-ton trailer.
Listed below are the glaring omissions. I will comment on only five: corruption, debt burden, dollar scarcity, climate change/floods and judgment debts.
· Corruption
· Out-of-School Children
· Debt burden
· Dollar scarcity
· Climate change challenges
· Judgment debts
· Hyper-inflation
· Data
· Quantitative analysis
· Credible projections
· New ideas
· Conviction
· Credibility
Corruption.
In a country so vitally crude oil dependent, and in which close to 40 per cent of crude produced is routinely stolen by members of the armed forces and security agents, one would have thought that the next President, irrespective of political party, will make halting corruption in the oil sector public service would be the first and most important priority. Obviously, it will be almost impossible to fund FG’s programmes without strong revenue led by proceeds from crude export.
The sixteen point agenda is totally lacking in any categorical promise to fight corruption – for very understandable reasons. Every government since 1999 promised and failed. The Buhari/APC government has made others appear like amateurs in kleptomania. Is that the reason why it was skipped? Or is it because nobody would believe it, if the Tinubu/Shettima team made it?
Debt burden.
The Buhari/APC government inherited less than N15 trillion debt burden in 2015. The projected debt load by the first quarter of 2023 is N51 trillion – not counting what is owed to the Central Bank through Ways and Means operations. Furthermore, the 2023 Budget as presented has projected N12 trillion deficits for the year or 196 per cent of FG’s total revenue. All the deficits will lead to more loans.
To make matters worse for us, just last week the FG was contemplating sending a Supplementary budget for 2023 – most definitely deficit will increase and debt correspondingly. Nigeria is gradually approaching a situation in which nobody will take the risk of granting us loans.
Can any serious candidate ignore all these dangers ahead and be promising 10 per cent annual growth?
Dollar scarcity
No serious candidate in an import-dependent economy like Nigeria can fail to recognise the threat od scarcity of foreign exchange to the country. The exchange rate the Buhari/APC government inherited was N199/US$1 official and N220-50/US$1 parallel. Now, we are faced with N440/US$1 official, and N890/US$1 parallel market rates. The absolute destruction of the Naira, which will continue until 2023, at least, and the consequences for the economy and national security can certainly not be disregarded by anybody who wants to rule us.
There is nothing in the 80 pages of documents to indicate that the Tinubu/Shettima team even realise that we are risking imminent catastrophe; let alone to address it.
Climate Change
Look again at the 16-point agenda; and you will find nothing specifically about Climate Change. That is as grievous an omission as any Presidential candidate in the world can make from now to the end of the world. President Buhari collected estacode, flew the Presidential jet to the last Climate Summit. He learnt nothing because he was not intellectually equipped for the discussions. For Nigeria, it was waste of time and waste of opportunity. Perhaps if we had a better President, we would not suffer half of the calamity the flood of 2022 brought on us. Now, we have lost, in the aggregate over two trillion Naira in just three months. That is bad enough.
Expecting and preparing for another flood in 2023 is the beginning of wisdom and good governance in 2023. I searched in vain for it in the Manifesto.
Judgment debts
Buhari must love mediocrity; he appointed so many people totally unfit for high office. Among the worst of his team is the Attorney-General of the Federation and Minister for Justice. It is still baffling to me that the man ever became a Senior Advocate of Nigeria, SAN. Who did it? They should be ashamed of themselves.
One of the most serious problems Mr Malami will leave for us are judgment debts. Most people think we are only exposed to about $750 million judgment debts. They live in a fools’ paradise.
Hanging over our heads is a financial sword – P&ID $9bn judgment debt – which started much lower under President Jonathan. It was inherited by Buhari; and ignored by Malami until a court in London ruled in favour of P&ID. The FGN has appealed. But, apart from Malami collecting money to travel to London, the case has remained a toss-up.
Tinubu/Shettima apparently are unaware that Buhari/Malami have dug a hole under the seat of the next President. If the Court of Appeal upholds the lower court’s judgment, Nigerians will be in worse hell than anything else that might happen to us. With such a President, who needs saboteurs?
There is nothing in the Manifesto about judgment debts and how they intend to tackle them. Obviously, nobody talked to good lawyers when preparing it. They better do now – in case they win.
CONCLUSION
“Standing on the foundation emplaced by the current [Buhari/APC] administration, we shall…” Manifesto page 3.
The rest of the document was predicated on the absurd assumption that Buhari has left a solid foundation on which his successors can build a strong and united Nigeria. Nothing can be further from the truth. Anybody expecting to build on a foundation including 20 million out-of-school children, N1000/US$1 exchange rate, 30 per cent inflation, N70-80 trillion debt burden, less than one million barrels per day of fuel and crumbling infrastructure (e.g East-West Road) – to mention a few examples – must be preparing to build on a flood plain.
One fellow asked me how I would describe the document prepared for Tinubu/Shettima by people who don’t wish them or Nigeria well. In one word, it is HOGWASH.
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