Palliatives Pallaver: Why Nothing Will Work Immediately

NOTE: Just before this article was sent to the Editor, the FG announced a review of the cash transfer to households. It is a wise decision. Just in case Tinubu is still thinking of cash transfer, then, this article remains valid. As I wrote immediately Tinubu addressed us on May 29, 2023, “Talk is cheap”.

“Allow an intolerable situation to persist for too long; and suddenly, there are no good options left.” Arthur Burns, 1904-1987, US Chairman of the Federal Reserve.

 I expected it; even if Tinubu did not. The announced cash payment to 12 million families at N8000 per month for six months only, was bound to develop into a turbulent national controversy; bringing an end to the short-lived euphoria over fuel subsidy removal and attempt at exchange rate unification. Even those who strongly applauded the two long overdue measures are now casting aspersions on the cash transfer scheme; and for good reasons. It has been tried several times before; and it has failed woefully each and every time. Invariably, it has deepened poverty and corruption. It is difficult to see how Tinubu expects to avoid the pit of corruption into which other Presidents, especially Buhari, have driven us in the past with the same approach.

 The political sharks, who ate up the peoples money, are still in the waters – ready to feast again. He should ask for the reports on a much smaller scheme on which the Buhari government embarked in the recent past with Festus Keyamo leading that parade. Under that programme, 774,000 young people were supposed to be engaged in all the 774 Local Governments. We are still trying to locate the 1000 youths in Lagos Island who collected the LG’s share of the N52 billion budgeted for it. Now, they are talking about 12 million families. The question is: how many families in Lagos Island will be involved? Who are they? Where are they? We have been duped before. If the 774 LGs are used as basis for allocation, then, nothing less than 15,500 households in our Island should be included. We are waiting.

 I have chosen Lagos Island as the acid test for the authenticity of the current programme because Tinubu claims this is his place of birth and we know several members of the extended family who can use N8,000. If the programme cannot be honestly executed here, it will certainly fail everywhere else. That, however, is only the preamble to this tough controversy over palliatives. But, before going on, there is a need to point out that Tinubu is not without defenders. Here is what one them had to say.

“Come off it!   Critics should wait for the full package of subsidy palliatives before condemning cash transfer.” Tinubu’s Defender, July 16, 2023.

 The author of that admonition works for Tinubu in one of his media outfits. His name is deliberately withheld because I have followed his weekly contributions to discussions on matters of general public interest. We agree almost seventy-five per cent of the time. Even on an occasion such as this, when I don’t totally agree with him, the point remains reasonable. Is it possible that the critics have jumped the gun? That Tinubu still has a few tricks up his sleeves which would make cash transfer not such a terrible idea after all? I am ready to wait.

 There are, however, two problems with that defence. First, how do we know that there is anything else? For that matter, how does the defender know that there is more? Second, Tinubu’s employees did not wait in 2012 to find out what Jonathan’s palliatives would look like before encouraging people to occupy Ojota in total condemnation of subsidy removal at that time. Hypocrisy?

 Right now, I am not so sure whether cash transfer is commendable or condemnable without first asking a few questions. Cash transfers work in countries or situations where the administration of the policy is transparent, efficient, data-based and honest. They become vehicles for corruption – when the policy is politicised and disbursement is too personal.

“What does corrupting time not diminish? Our grandparents brought forth feebler heirs; we are further degenerate, and soon will beget progeny more wicked.” Horace, 65-8 B. C

  Nigeria practised successful cash transfer in the past. Many of us over the age of seventy, and who lived with pensioners, can remember the postman coming to the door, monthly, to deliver pension cheques for grandfathers, fathers or uncles. We might even have been the ones sent to either Bank of British West Africa (now First Bank) or Barclays Bank, D.C.O (now Union Bank) to deposit the cheques brought, unfailingly, into the owner’s account. In my area in Lagos Island, three or four of us, young boys would go marching towards Marina clutching pension cheques brought by the Post Office. Cash transfers worked perfectly because government was populated by honest public servants.

 Cash transfer, under various governments since the 1970s, ending with Buhari, became a scam because the 70+ Nigerians were morally more degenerate than our grandparents and we have begotten more wicked children.

 Most of the commentators on this policy had been splitting hairs on what is less important – the safety of the transfers. But, it is doubtful if Tinubu is not aware that unless his government can guarantee safe delivery of the transfer, he might as well forget it. He will only open another opportunity for illegal self-enrichment by civil servants, politicians and bankers. Buhari administration’s Social Investment Programme, SIP, was the largest single source of corruption in Nigerian history. And, I am waiting for any of his spokesmen to send a rejoinder. Cash transfer, right now, will not work. Buhari left too many rogues in Abuja.

 Instead of wasting time quibbling over what is obvious, I think we should instead ask a few more questions.

WHAT IS OR ARE THE OBJECTIVE(S)?

“In whatever situation you find yourself, determine first what is your objective”

Field Marshall Foch, 1851-1929..

 So far, the Federal Government and the National Assembly, NASS, have allocated funds – N500bn or N800bn – without anybody stating clearly what are the objectives of the spending? What are they trying to achieve? When? And will the amount to be spent achieve the goal(s)? When attempting to solve a political, socio-economic problem, such as this one, it is always advisable to tackle the economics first because it is more quantitative and aspects of it can be more readily agreed upon by all commentators and stakeholders. That being the case, and in the absence of any other information from FG, the most important question, which has actually been partly answered is: what will be the repercussions of paying N8,000 to 12 million households? I am setting aside questions concerning how and who will select the recipients in a manner that will be nationally accepted as fair.

Assuming a household means four individuals, then N8,000 a month means N2000 per person per month and N67 a day. Right now, in Nigeria, it is almost impossible to buy a plate of rice, without meat, for less than N100. Furthermore, an individual is regarded as living in poverty who spend less than $1.5 or N1,125 per day at exchange rate of N750/US$1. Obviously, N8,000 per month does not alleviate poverty; does not buy food or anything else. So, what is this amount supposed to do? I have an idea. It can only serve a useful purpose by being given to, say, pensioners, whose identities can be verified as addition to their low incomes. That way, the embezzlement is minimised and the multiplier effect, to which Tinubu alluded would be achieved. We will also achieve another objective. We will be paying those who have worked for Nigeria.

To be continued….

FROM CAKE SHARERS TO SPE – THE CAKE BAKERS

“If they go about solving the problem this way, how many more problems will they have created by the time they finish?” James Baldwin, 1924-1987.

 Unlike other commentators, I am mostly disappointed by Tinubu’s approach to solving our numerous economic problems because he has started from the wrong end. Nigeria is in deep trouble because all the governments, military and civilian, since the 1970s have become glorified cake sharers. Nobody cares about baking a bigger cake. Meanwhile, despite the global assault on fossil fuel, Nigeria will for more than twenty years rely on crude oil for the bulk of our national income. We need Nigerians to bake a bigger “oil cake”. I was pleasantly surprised to discover that a group of young Nigerians are already thinking along this line.

 The Society of Petroleum Engineers, SPE, an all-Nigerian society, has taken up the challenge of training and upgrading the skills of Nigerians in the sector in a bid to ensure that Nigerians can manage the nation’s oil and gas resources if the expatriates leave in the future. SPE has organised The Nigeria Annual International Conference & Exhibitions, NAICE, for July 31 to August 2, 2023, including two-days course for July 29 and 30, 2023 for all grades of petroleum engineers in Nigeria.

 If you are a petroleum engineer or stakeholder, reading this, please pass the message to others. Nigeria needs SPE more than ever.

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