2027: Why Shettima Is In ‘Trouble’

The circumstances surrounding Vice President Kashim Shettima over his prospects as running mate to President Bola Tinubu on the 2027 presidential ticket of the All Progressives Congress, APC are not surprising in Nigeria.

Almost all sitting vice-presidents since the advent of the Fourth Republic with the notable exception of Namadi Sambo faced scrutiny on retaining their slots in the election for a second term.

However, remarkably, none has so far been jettisoned by the incumbent president.

When in April 2002, President Olusegun Obasanjo declared his aspiration for a second term, no mention was made of Atiku being retained as his running mate. Indeed, Atiku was abroad when Chief Tony Anenih was planning the declaration. On learning of the plan, Atiku had to rush back to Nigeria and arrived the country just on the eve of the declaration. He was a guest at the ceremony and no mention was made of him.

Remarkably, just before the declaration, a media hype on President Obasanjo taking the Mandela Option, a political phraseology for Obasanjo to take the statesman route and serve one term, and hand over the baton to Atiku had circulated in the polity. It was at that time largely believed that the Mandela Option media blitz was sponsored by Atiku with some governors then beholden to him. Obasanjo with the prompting of Anenih at that time began to see Atiku as power greedy and it was no surprise that he began to seek an independent political pathway.

About that time Anenih had taken Obasanjo one night to the offices of the National Democratic Project, NDP, an NGO sponsored by Atiku and at that time headed by Dr Usman Bugaje that was focused on producing blueprints on virtually every sector of Nigeria’s socio-economy.

Your correspondent remembers visiting there sometime around that time and going away with the conviction that there was perhaps no one better prepared with a vision to be president of Nigeria than Atiku.

Remarkably, the NDP office was almost opposite Anenih’s residence in the Asokoro area of Abuja. It was alleged at that time that Anenih had claimed that the NDP was the tentative headquarters of Atiku’s presidential campaign. Whether President Obasanjo believed it or not is not known. But whatever, when Obasanjo made his declaration for a second term, Atiku was completely ignored setting the stage for the political differences between the two men.

Under the threat of PDP governors loyal to Atiku abandoning him at the presidential convention, Obasanjo eventually picked Atiku but the romance between the two was subsequently never the same.

The prospects of Vice-President Goodluck Jonathan being picked as running mate by President Umaru Yar`Adua in 2011 were becoming a matter of great debate in the days before the passage of the former president. What is known is that Jonathan had over time during that period been seriously weakened as the image of Chief James Ibori, the immediate past governor of Delta State was impressed upon everyone at that time. There were tales of Jonathan being humiliated by the Ibori crowd and the vice-president being reduced to reading newspapers as Ibori’s swagger reverberated through the Yar`Adua administration.

It was repeatedly guessed at that time that Ibori would OFFICIALLY replace Jonathan as vice-president in 2011.

 However, those permutations were upended when death visited Yar`Adua and Ibori reportedly withdrew to the creeks enroute Dubai and to his temporary political ruin.

Namadi Sambo who came in as vice-president to President Jonathan did not have any doubt on his presence on the ticket for 2015. However, Vice President Yemi Osinbajo was perhaps almost eviscerated during the Muhammadu Buhari presidency mainly on account of some of his actions when he acted for the president. The sack of Lawal Daura as the Director of the Department of State Services, DSS and insinuations that he carried the shine when Buhari was out of town almost did him in. However, Buhari was stuck with him as he could not be made to offer an explanation for removing what was about the best-selling face of the administration. Indeed, as the 2019 election drew near, Buhari handed Osinbajo the job of becoming the administration’s chief marketer only reigning him in after the election.

But for Vice President Kashim Shettima the circumstances against him are difficult to articulate beyond the exertions of presidency officials and other APC top guns who want his job.

As at now, no one has been able to say what Shettima has done to be subject to such political uncertainty. Shettima, remarkably was among the earliest to identify with Tinubu and stuck with him through thick and thin. Despite continuing claims of the Tinubu administration foisting perhaps the greatest degree of nepotism in the history of Nigeria, Vice President Shettima has remained loyal at the great inconvenience of his political base.

The suggestion that Tinubu cannot manage deputies mainly on account of the about three or four deputies that worked with him as governor of Lagos does not hold water in this case. In Lagos the discord was mainly based on politics and rivalry between Tinubu and his deputies. In this case, there has been no discord.

There are also suggestions that Tinubu may want to replace Shettima with a Christian to balance the ticket. Whatever, there are claims in Abuja that the vice-president’s problems flow from the desire of some people, including a security chief, to replace him as vice-president.

Whatever, Tinubu and Shettima have a great deal of explanation to give if they decide to divorce ahead of 2027. That is, if they can also explain what they have done with the mandate they presently have.

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