New Details On How Tinubu Subdued Buhari

THE purpose of this serial is to analyse what just happened in the 2023 elections against the background of President Muhammadu Buhari and President-elect, Bola Tinubu’s turn-by-turn power sharing arrangement. Tinubu played his part in helping make Buhari president after the latter lule (failed) three times. Did Buhari faithfully reciprocate Tinubu’s gesture?

Does the fact that he is now the “chief promoter” of Tinubu’s presidential ambition mean he was true to the deal, or is the outgoing president doing so because he has no choice? This article is here to show that Buhari had initially intended to throw Tinubu and his ambition under the bus but a combination of factors forced the Daura politician back on board.

I have already outlined in the first part how Buhari had intended to hand over to former President Goodluck Jonathan. When that failed, he settled for Senate President Ahmed Lawan. When that flopped, Buhari was out of options.

Tinubu moved in for the kill. We have already made the point that unlike former President Olusegun Obasanjo, Buhari does not have executive capacity, the brain power and physical stamina to implement complex schemes which political leadership entails. He gives orders, approves funds, reads prepared speeches and signs documents. Anybody can do those! Leadership requires more.

Tinubu, in his best of times, has a surfeit of capacity. What is more, he has a bottomless pocket. Don’t ask me how he made the money. He is ever willing to spend to get what he wants. Unlike other aspirants for the APC ticket, Tinubu was intensively courting, sometimes financially, the APC governors, with emphasis on the high vote states such as Kano’s Umar Ganduje, Katsina’s Aminu Masari, Jigawa’s Abubakar Badaru, Kebbi’s Abubakar Bagudu, Plateau’s Simon Lalong and Borno’s Umara Zulum/Kashim Shettima.

Senator Kashim Shettima and his carefully handpicked successor, Zulum, were among the first Northern leaders to throw their weights behind Tinubu’s aspiration. They believed he deserved to be rewarded for his role in making Buhari president. Shettima also proved his worth, as a former Chairman of the Northern Governors’ Forum, in persuading the Northern APC Governors to support power shift directly to Tinubu.

Tinubu also stretched out his hand of fellowship to Kaduna’s Governor Nasir el-Rufai, ignoring the insults that the controversial politician came to Lagos to heap on him. On May 8, 2019, El-Rufai had attended an event in Lagos and told his audience that he would teach Lagos people how to get rid of their godfather.

Who else was that if not Tinubu? Also, on May 31, 2020 he attended a webinar organised to honour Tinubu’s estranged acolyte, Rauf Aregbesola, the Interior Minister. He said pointedly: “Tinubu is not my man”.

But in spite of all these and more, Tinubu chose to focus on the fact that El-Rufai had immense capacity for good and evil in equal measure. El-Rufai in his camp was better than El-Rufai outside. With the experiences of Obasanjo and Buhari in mind, Tinubu knew that once El-Rufai submits his loyalty to you, he will fight for you until your usefulness expires, or another new master comes along.

Tinubu reached out for him. He honoured El-Rufai’s invitation to an event in Arewa House in July 2022 and asked him to come on board. After a brief hesitation, El-Rufai jumped on board and became a rallying point for the North’s support for Tinubu.

El-Rufai on board paid off in at least three ways. Shettima, El-Rufai and Ganduje rallied Badaru, Masari, Zulum, Bagudu, Yahaya Bello of Kogi and Lalong to support Tinubu for the APC presidential ticket. El- Rufai fronted Yahaya Bello of Kogi and Bello Matawalle of Zamfara in an effort to use the Supreme Court to force Buhari to drop his de-legalisation of the old Naira notes when the president was still fighting Tinubu’s ambition. Indeed, El-Rufai made a broadcast directing Kaduna State residents to continue to use the old Naira notes in defiance of Buhari’s deadline to decommission the old banknotes as legal tender. Above all, El-Rufai tried (though he failed) to win Kaduna for Tinubu. Atiku Abubakar of the PDP won with 554,360 votes, while Tinubu got 399,293 votes.

So, Tinubu’s decision to ignore El-Rufai’s insults and embrace him bore fruits. This is an aspect of Tinubu’s leadership attributes that have made him a successful politician. We can gossip about his dodgy past, source of wealth, controversial identity, alleged involvement in drugs and so on. But that dude is smart. A smart person is one who knows what he wants and how to get it.

I had to dwell at length on the El-Rufai factor, not because of El-Rufai per se, but because of how Tinubu downplayed his insults (which would have been obstacles to some) and exploited the El-Rufai factor to achieve his goal.

On June 8, 2022, Bola Ahmed Tinubu braved all the odds and clinched the presidential ticket of his party. Power had shifted from Buhari to Tinubu. Evidence of that included the party’s National Chairman, Senator Abdullahi Adamu, helping Tinubu’s trembling hands to hold up the APC flag. Just a day before, Adamu was trying to force Ahmed Lawan down the throat of the party on Buhari’s orders.

As the chilly hours of that morning welcomed Tinubu as the presidential candidate and new leader of the APC dawned, the whole world could see Muhammadu Buhari, decked in a dandy blue babanriga, wearing a deep sneer on his lips, staring at Jupiter, detached from it all, and waiting impatiently to go home.

In the third instalment next week, we will see how Buhari fought Tinubu, lost and joined his vanquisher. And why he did.

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